I'm backing the Nuggets to cover the first half spread of -2.5. The Suns are 0-6 ATS in the first half, while the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the first half. I imagine this game will be a lot tighter down the stretch with the Suns making some adjustments on their end. I think the Nuggets’ excellence at home will be too much for the Suns, but I don't see much value in the full game spread of -4.5. The Nuggets are playing with something to prove. Suns odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nuggets vs. Tip-off at Footprint Center is at 10 p.m. Therefore, they will have to fight fire with fire and continue to count on their dynamic offense to put pressure on the middling Suns defense. The Denver Nuggets visit the Phoenix Suns meet Friday for the 3rd game of their Western Conference semifinals series. The Nuggets will have a hard time containing Booker and Durant. Repeat shooting performances are unlikely, and I am counting on some regression in Game 2. If Murray and Gordon continue to play the way they did in Game 1, the Nuggets should roll to another victory. Ayton appeared to be passive on several possessions, allowing Jokic to grab eight offensive rebounds. Not only does he present a mismatch on offense, but he also dominated the boards. Jokic presents a huge matchup problem for Ayton and the Suns. After Saturday's win, the Nuggets are 38-7 straight up and 28-16-1 ATS at home this season. Even filtering for games that Booker and Paul both played, they are a mediocre 11-10 straight up and 10-10-1 ATS on the road, per the Sports Data Query Language at Gimme the Dog. The Suns were not a strong road team this season. Turnovers were an issue as well with the Suns coughing it up 16 times. The Suns were outscored 48-21 from behind the arc, as they only went 7-for-23 from the 3-point line while the Nuggets went 16-for-37. However, the 3-point discrepancy was too hard to overcome. There were moments where the Suns offense looked incredibly efficient, especially Durant. Warren are not getting any playing time, while Landry Shamet continues to give the Suns unproductive minutes. The poor second quarter in Game 1 highlighted the lack depth on Phoenix's roster, and it is obvious head coach Monty Williams doesn’t have much trust in the bench. In Game 1, their minutes were lower due to the team getting blown out. That likely isn’t sustainable for three injury-prone players. Both Devin Booker and Kevin Durant exceeded the 40-minutes mark in all five games in the first round and 37-year old Chris Paul wasn’t that far behind. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, contact 1-800-GAMBLER.One of the observations I made ahead of the series was that the Suns' stars are playing an incredible amount of minutes. Must be 21+ to gamble, please wager responsibly. Not all offers available in all states, please visit BetMGM for the latest promotions for your area. Of the shots attempted by Denver in 2022-23, 63.9% of them have been two-pointers (72.9% of the team's made baskets) and 36.1% have been from beyond three-point land (27.1%).Here’s a look at the odds, as well as a betting pick and prediction for Nuggets vs. The Nuggets are sinking 11.8 three-pointers per game this year (18th-ranked in NBA), and they have a 37.9% three-point percentage (fourth-best). The Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites at home for this Game 1, but the Suns are favored for the series.
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